In early October 2026, Russia once again raised the issue of nuclear threats in its relations with Europe. President Putin stated that if NATO attempts to block Kaliningrad, Moscow is prepared to use "all types of weapons," including nuclear. This prompted a response from NATO, which assured that it has no plans to block this region.
Nuclear Threats and Their Context
Speaking at the Valdai forum, Putin did not issue harsh ultimatums but his words were understood as a warning: escalation of the conflict could lead to nuclear war. He emphasized that in the event of war with Europe, Russia would use nuclear weapons as its "competitive advantage." According to him, this would happen "inevitably and immediately."
Europe's Reaction and Historical Context
The threats from Moscow evoke reminders of the events leading up to the full-scale war with Ukraine in 2022. At that time, there were also false assumptions about the opponent's readiness for aggression. European countries, like Ukraine, believe that Russia would not dare to launch an open attack, thinking that in the event of a conflict it would suffer significant losses.
- Putin hinted that aggression against Russia could be defined as strikes by UAF on Russian territory.
- Moscow believes that arms supplies from Europe pose a threat.
- In Europe, there is a widespread belief that a Russian attack could be beneficial, as it would allow activating European troops.
Possible Scenarios for Future Developments
Analysts believe that any attack by Russia on Europe could be accompanied by the threat of nuclear weapon use if NATO countries begin to strike back. Among the possible scenarios are:
- A sharp deterioration of the situation on the front for Russia.
- Weakening of international restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons.
- Actions by Europe that Moscow perceives as threatening, such as blocking shipping or intensifying military actions in Ukraine.
These factors could lead to escalation of the conflict, which, in turn, calls into question the concept of a "long war" being beneficial for Europe.